It looks like US Senate Candidate Rob Portman will be forced to waste money fighting an ad war with primary opponent Tom Ganley.  The Cleveland car dealer seems intent on spending millions of his own money despite little likelihood of winning.  He has made his first ad buy as part of that strategy:

Republican Senate candidate Tom Ganley, the car dealer from Cleveland who has said he will put up millions of dollars in his own money on the race, is on the air statewide with an ad that aims to highlight his ability to create jobs, according to his campaign.

Ganley is trying to buy his way into a competitive primary.  Unlike Portman who is well on his way to visiting all 88 counties in Ohio, and has been tirelessly campaigning, Ganley is simply vowing to spend millions on advertising.  The only winners in this battle are going to be TV stations and ad consultants.

Ganley has a mistaken view of the recent race in NY-23 and is going to waste a lot of time, effort and money as a result. For why, see below.

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Rothenberg has done a great service by documenting the most accurate pollsters which most accurately predicted the results of last Tuesday’s elections.

In the heat of predictable arguments about which polls are the most accurate leading up to the 2010 mid-term elections, Rothenberg’s list of the most accurate pollsters in the off-year elections will provide the list of the the handful which should be listened to, and which should be ignored.

Here they are:

Rothenberg’s Pollster of the Cycle Award: “SurveyUSA, which once again proved its worth, at least in pre-election polls. The firm’s final Virginia numbers were eerily close…”

The other handful of firms who were the next closest: Public Policy Polling and Quinnipiac University.

Research2000 was called out by Rothenberg was called out for being the most inaccurate because of its overstatement of support for Deeds in Virginia.

Interesting, Rothenberg called the media to task for describing “Dede Scozzafava, the Republican nominee in New York’s 23rd district, as a moderate.” Rothenberg says:

“Scozzafava doesn’t only support abortion rights - often a marker for Republican “moderates” - she supports gay marriage. But she doesn’t only support gay marriage; she supported President Barack Obama’s stimulus proposal that not a single House Republican favored. But she didn’t just support the stimulus package; she supports the Employee Free Choice Act (what opponents call “card check”), which is opposed by virtually the entire business community. And in the end, of course, she endorsed the Democrat in the race.

Scozzafava is a liberal Republican by any standard, and she should have been labeled as such. She is more liberal than every Republican in the House of Representatives and many Democrats.”

It’s actually been a matter of some amusement for us: you could tell who the lazy or just dumb reporters were from their habitual reference of this site as Redstate.org, which it hasn’t been for years.  Apparently, the Washington Post has gotten around to updating their files, bless their hearts.  A shame that Eugene Robinson didn’t then try to actually talk to a Republican before he wrote his column, although I admit that it would have been harder than sneering at the Republicans that live largely in his head.

Let’s unpack a typical paragraph:

Will loyal members inform on others for harboring suspiciously moderate views?

Err, no.

Will anyone judged guilty have to wear a sign saying “Republican In Name Only” as penance?

Err, no.

Will there be re-education camps?

Err, no.  Also: cheapening to the memory of victims in the tens of millions.

Will deviationists face the Enhanced Interrogation Technique of being forced to listen to the wit and wisdom of Glenn Beck, at ear-splitting volume, for days on end?

Err, no.

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The more one digs into Tuesday’s election results, the worse they look for Democrats.  Let’s start by reviewing once again the three high profile races: New York’s 23^rd Congressional District special election, and the gubernatorial in New Jersey and Virginia.

The Democrats have to know that NY-23 was a fluke – they can’t count on gross Republican miscalculation in 2010.  Meanwhile, Democratic efforts to write off the New Jersey and Virginia losses by blaming them on bad candidates simply don’t ring true. 

In Virginia, Creigh Deeds was not a bad candidate.  In the primary, despite being vastly outspent, he hammered the powerful Terry McAuliffe.  He had the endorsement of the Washington Post, which argued that of three strong Democratic primary candidates, in the general election, “Deeds’ moderate platform would have the broadest appeal.”  On liberal blog sites, Deeds was the overwhelming favorite as the best candidate, the one most likely to win the general election.  

Jon Corzine was not a bad candidate, either – he could self-fund his race, an enormous advantage, and outspend any opponent 3 to 1, as he did to Chris Christie.  He had been elected statewide twice before.  What Corzine was, was a bad governor.  And why was he a bad governor?  Because he followed the same type of policies that the Democrats are now pursuing on a national level.  Maybe someone will notice that.

It has been noted lately that the Democrats plan to hold on next fall is to go negative, and to do so early – to “vaporize” opponents, as Harry Reid says.  But that is exactly what both Deeds and Corzine tried to do.  Corzine, who won by 11 points in 2005, lost by 4 this year.  Deeds, who lost to the same man in the attorney general race 4 years ago by fewer than 350 votes, this time lost by 18 percentage points.  Meanwhile, President Obama embraced and campaigned with both men.  Yet McDonnell won by the biggest margin for a Republican ever, and Christie by the largest margin for a Republican in 24 years.  Thus, the Democrats’ two key strategies to hold on in 2010 (other than pray for a better economy) failed miserably – Obama couldn’t save them, and relentlessly negative campaigning couldn’t save them.  These men were not bad candidates, as their past success and praise for them suggests – rather, they were running on bad issues in a time in which Democrats are increasingly blamed for the nation’s difficulties.

In the other Congressional special election, California’s 10^th District, Lt. Governor  John Garamendi won by 11 points after heavily outspending his opponent in a district won by his predecessor in 2008 by 34 points, in which Democrats have an 18 point edge in voter registration, and which Obama carried by 31 points.  Not much to crow about.

Down ballot, in races for lower offices, including state legislatures and mayors, it gets worse. 

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(H/T: Big Government) I’m actually not upset about this, seeing as I knew all along that he’d break his word.  Fish swim, birds fly, ‘conservative’ Democratic legislators betray their principles on cue.  And so it is, here:

GOUVERNEUR, NY - Congressman-elect Bill Owens was sworn in at noon today.

Owens indicated in a press release that he was now in favor of the bill in direct contrast to his earlier position during his campaign.

According to Politico.com, Mr. Owens assured voters that he felt the public option had no place in the health care reform bill.  Contrary to that position, Mr. Owens now indicates that he intends to vote in favor of the bill even though it now contains a public option.

More at the link, including the three other promises that Owens has already broken. I would like to believe that this is a record of some sort, but it’s probably not.

Moe Lane

PS: Do not expect any so-called ‘Blue Dog’ or supposed ‘conservative’ Democrat to voluntarily get in the way of their party’s health care rationing bill.  They vote as they are bid - and the ones doing the bidding are not their constituents.

Crossposted to RedState.

Republicans are - rightly - crowing this morning about the GOP’s victories in the New Jersey Governor’s race and a battery of races in Virginia from the Governorship on down and what they say about the turn in the national mood, if not in a pro-Republican direction then at least in a direction that’s sufficiently hostile to the Democrats that voters in states won by Obama and dominated by the Democrats in the last few years are willing to give individual Republicans another chance.

But the key word there, even in an across-the-board sweep like happened in Virginia, is individual. There remains an ongoing battle on the Right over how Republicans choose which candidates to support - who voters and the national party organs should back in primaries, when and whether to support third party candidacies, etc. It’s a battle intensified by Doug Hoffman’s loss in the NY-23 race after the NRCC-backed candidate, Dede Scoazzafava, ended up swinging the race to the Democrats when she endorsed Bill Owens. But in making sense of such debates, this is a point that cannot be stressed enough: no matter how favorable or unfavorable the overall national climate may be, no matter what ideological compass you want the party to follow, you can’t ever overlook the importance of the individual candidates and the conditions they run in. I said it in 2008 with regard to presidential campaigns, and it’s true as well of races for Governor, Senate or House: ideas don’t run for president, people do.

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Folks, there are some serious questions as to the accuracy of the ABC News report linked to in this post showing a Steele quote criical of Palin, Pawlenty, and me.

As a result, I’m yanking the post and digging into it. I’ll see what I can do to sort it out.

Sorry for the inconvenience. This is bothersome. The actual video on which the interview was based does not reflect what was reported. Gail Gitcho from the RNC also say the Chairman was not dinging Palin, Pawlenty, or me.

While the Democrats are crowing a bit this morning over the unusual circumstances of NY-23, they might want to pay attention to one under-reported fact: Bill Owens, the man NY-23 sent to Congress last night, campaigned against the public option.

That is not exactly a ringing endorsement of Obamacare by the voters up there.

Democrats might want to rethink how they view NY-23.

The race has now been called for Democrat Bill Owens.

This is a huge win for conservatives.

“Whaaaa. . . ?” you say.

There are two big victories at work in New York’s 23rd Congressional District.

First, the GOP now must recognize it will either lose without conservatives or will win with conservatives. In 2008, many conservatives sat home instead of voting for John McCain. Now, in NY-23, conservatives rallied and destroyed the Republican candidate the establishment chose.

I have said all along that the goal of activists must be to defeat Scozzafava. Doug Hoffman winning would just be gravy. A Hoffman win is not in the cards, but we did exactly what we set out to do — crush the establishment backed GOP candidate.

And make no mistake, despite the Beltway spin, we know for certain based on statements from the local Republican parties, that they chose Scozzafava based on advice from the Washington crowd.

So we have demonstrated to the GOP that it must not take conservatives for granted. The GOP spent $900,000.00 on a Republican who dropped out and endorsed the Democrat. Were we to combine Scozzafava and Hoffman’s votes, Hoffman would have won.

Secondly, and just as importantly, there has all of a sudden been a huge movement among some activists to go the third party route. We see in NY-23 that this is not possible as third parties are not viable.

Third parties lack funding and ability for a host of reasons. Conservatives are going to have to work from within the GOP. The GOP had better pay attention.

For all intents and purposes, NY-23 is a trial run for Florida. And in Florida, the conservative candidate is operating inside the GOP. If John Cornyn and the NRSC do not want to see Florida go the way of NY-23, they better stand down.

Still trying to find a link.

UPDATE by Erick: I’ve just talked to the Hoffman campaign. They tell me they are “cautiously optimistic.”

On his third trip to the polls, a Hoffman supporter and poll watcher had his tires slashed this afternoon —as you can see he had a hoffman sign in his back window.

A police report has been filed.

[updated:] Local police are not willing to confirm it was a tire slashing and say it could be that the poll watcher ran over a bottle.

Contra the empty RNC phone bank room from below, Ben Smith is reporting that the RNC has made 140,000 calls into NY-23 since Sunday for Hoffman.

Good.

UPDATE: On a 4:30 conference call, the Hoffman campaign is downright mocking at the idea the RNC has helped them on the ground.

Talking to Andy Roth at Club For Growth, I’ve gotten a few tips on things to look out for in New York tonight. By the way, if you are looking for a place to send some money, consider that the Club got in early for Doug Hoffman and did great work. We’re going to need their coffers replenished for 2010. Go join now and give.

The eastern part of the district is where Owens is strongest. He was leading there before Dede got out of the race, and her exit should not change much there. Do not be worried if Owens comes out ahead in Clinton, Essex, and Franklin Counties.

The western part of the district is the most conservative. This should be strong territory for Hoffman. The counties are Madison, Oneida, and Oswego. Oswego is the largest county in the district.

The northern part of the district is Dede’s home area, where she was strongest. She will likely still retain more votes here than anywhere else. Hoffman should win here, but if we see Owens doing well in this area, we will know that Dede’s supporters are moving in the wrong direction. St. Lawrence and Jefferson Counties are the big ones here, and there is also Lewis.

Finally, there are two small counties, Hamilton and Fulton, which are in the Albany media market. Because of superior resource allocation here by the Dems, we suspect that Owens wins here.

The attached picture was taken at 8:30 pm last night in the main call center room at the RNC where the volunteers sit for phone banking. There were about 10 people there from 5:30-8. After that? Well . . . you get the point.

Oh, and let’s not forget Harmer, Christie, and McDonnell.

I’m told, by the way, that there are some private rooms with just phones. Certainly, there could have been people in those rooms, but this is where the volunteers were told to go last night. Not a great effort.

These guys keep shooting themselves in the foot.

“This lady clearly has as agenda that’s different than most Republicans, she was out there promoting herself,” Boehner said, noting that he has encouraged all members of the GOP conference to support Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman.

Mr. Boehner, with respect, this was blindly obvious to all of us outside the Beltway. You guys have spent $900,000.00 on a leftist who returned the favor by stabbing you in the back.

If you are clueless as to who you are backing for office, exactly how can we trust you on the bigger issues? The character of a man is best revealed in how he handles the small things.

There is something about New York’s 23rd Congressional District that reporters and the GOP establishment are ignoring. According to the PPP poll and the Sienna poll, Doug Hoffman is expanding the base of voters willing to vote for a conservative, not shrinking the base as the press alleges.

In talking about this race this morning with Joe Scarborough on his radio show, he talked about the parallels to his race in 1994. Getting on Lexis-Nexis and doing some digging was an eye opening experience.

It is also a powerful reminder for House Republicans wanting to take back the House that they are going to need to ignore the NRCC and instead go right where right can win.

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There is poll volatility (PDF) in the NY-23 race. PPP has Hoffman over 50%. Sienna has him at 41%.

Both have Owens hovering in the mid-thirties.

Isn’t it interesting, by the way, that for the last month Owens has held in the mid-thirties while everyone else has bounced around him and in New Jersey Corzine has held around 41% while everyone bounced around him.

I wonder if that is because of the negativity associated with the Republican brand. People don’t want to vote for Owens or Corzine, but they just aren’t sure that voting for the R will leave them better off. That may very well be why Hoffman benefited from not being the Republican in the race for so long.

And it should serve as notice to the GOP that conservative polls better than Republican.

(H/t Ironman)

According to PPP, Doug Hoffman has raced into the lead against Owens, taking 51% to Owens’ 34%

The race, however, is not over and there is no guarantee the polling is even halfway accurate. That is not to slight PPP, it just happens to be a crazy race, with a last minute drop out, and lots of weekend polling scores to make up the foundation.

But, and this is a bit but, a lot of third party and internal polling does suggest Hoffman has gone into the lead. Likewise, it looks from PPP and other polling that even before Scozzafava dropped out, Hoffman had a big lead among Republican voters. Additionally, of the votes Scozzafava was holding on to, they were loyal Republicans and women.

If Hoffman can appeal to women, he should be okay. Scozzafava’s Republican votes will either go to him or stay home.

Now what they need are bodies.  Doug Hoffman’s calling for help… so if you have a day or two to spare, get thee hence to NY-23.

UPDATE: See also Hot Air.

Dede Scozzafava is throwing her support to the Democrat, Bill Owens.

She and her husband are working with union activists to drive the vote up for the Democrat.

The Republican Party spent $900,000.00 to help her and this is how she repays them.

And Pete Sessions, Chairman of the NRCC, and Guy Harrison, Executive Director of the NRCC, still have their jobs and are failing to take responsibility for this disaster, instead blaming conservatives.